The Bright Coast

Progressive Thoughts from San Diego Alums on Law, Politics, and Culture

Posts Tagged ‘The Right Coast’

One Year Seems Like a Good Enough Break…

Posted by demkid on August 10, 2012

I wonder how many people have come to The Bright Coast in the past year and have been utterly disappointed due to the lack of any new posts.  Probably not a whole lot, but I can live with that.  The fact is, “brightcoast” and I have moved on to bigger and better things in the past couple of years, and we simply don’t have nearly the same amount of time to devote to crafting award-winning blog posts on “law, politics, and culture,” to use part of the tagline we borrowed from our rival blog.  (That “other” blog has still been going strong, though, as our USD Law professor friends generally have plenty of time on their hands to write about all things conservative.)  The two of us, on the other hand, have become USD Law alums, and neither of us even lives in San Diego, anymore!  That being said, and especially since we’re less than 3 months from what many are calling “the biggest election of our lives,” I’ve caught the blogging bug again, at least to write the occasional election-related post.  Where better to start than to talk briefly about some of my favorite subjects: polling, the state of the race as I see it, and the electoral college.

Despite what our professor friend hopes will happen, that being, a landslide for Willard Romney, I can say without a shadow of a doubt that it will never come to pass.  In fact, I can almost guarantee that President Obama will be re-elected in November.  Why am I so confident?  Well, besides the fact that Romney is a super weak candidate, the economy will slowly improve over the next few months, and it’s just generally difficult to defeat an incumbent, the electoral math is clearly on the President’s side.  For Romney to win, there would have to be a pretty significant shift across the country to his side (Obama currently leads nationally by a few points or so), and he would almost have to sweep all of the major swing states.  For an excellent state of the race, check out Nate Silver’s page here, which currently gives President Obama almost a 75% chance of winning re-election.  For me, the proof is in the electoral math, and I’ve created a couple of maps over at 270towin.com to illustrate my confidence.  The following map shows the lay of the land, that is, I would be absolutely shocked if any of the colored states goes the other way on Election Day:

My Solid States

As you can see, I believe that President Obama is a mere 23 electoral votes from re-election.  If he fails to win any of the above blue states, he’ll be in real trouble.  I just don’t see that happening.  So, if he’s at 247, where does he pick up the other 23?  In my mind, there are two clear paths to victory.  Here’s the first:

Nevada (or Iowa) plus Ohio = Victory

In the above scenario, President Obama wins Nevada (where he’s currently up 5 in the polls with a 79% chance to win) and Ohio (also currently up 5 and a 72% chance to win.)  He could also replace Nevada with Iowa, where he’s up 3 and has a 67% chance to win (these percentages come from Nate Silver’s page.)  So, let’s leave in either Nevada or Iowa, and show you the second-easiest path to re-election:

Nevada (or Iowa) plus New Hampshire and Virginia = Victory

New Hampshire and Virginia will get the President to exactly 270.  In New Hampshire, he’s currently up 4 with a 74% chance, and in Virginia, he’s up 3 with a 68% chance to win.

In conclusion, I recommend focusing on polls from the above-mentioned states over the next 3 months.  If you see a bad couple of polls from any of the blue states in the first map, President Obama should be very concerned.  But, if all those hold up, simply look at Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia.  Winning Florida, North Carolina, or Colorado would just be a bonus…these aren’t needed to win.  Also as shown, the President doesn’t need Ohio to win, if he can get Virginia, New Hampshire, and either Nevada or Iowa.  Many paths to victory, and many fewer paths to victory for Romney.  That’s the state of the race as I see it, and that, my friends, is our first blog post in a year.  Perhaps there will be more soon to come!

 

 

Posted in Election 2012, Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Happy Birthday to Us!

Posted by demkid on September 30, 2009

This month (September 17th, to be exact) marked this blog’s first birthday, and I think it’s been a particularly fun, entertaining, and successful year.  We launched just in time for the run up to the election, and had an enjoyable time discussing all things political as we watched history unfold.  I didn’t do that poorly in my election predictions, but unfortunately overestimated the voters of California when it came to equal rights for all.  By far our most successful post during the past year (and not likely to be topped) was the one back in April that helped break the 2010 U.S. News Law School Rankings.  That post received thousands upon thousands of hits, and still continues to be popular!  It just goes to show how much those rankings matter to people, and how a blog can get massive hits if linked to by highly-visited sites.  We were lucky that the main point of that popular post was the huge jump in the rankings by our esteemed school, the University of San Diego School of Law.  I’m glad that we were able to bring such positive publicity to the school.

Speaking of positive publicity, one of our goals is to serve as a quality reflection on the students, faculty, staff, and alumni of USD Law.  We hope that we’ve done that over the past year through our writing and overall quality of the blog, and further hope that The Bright Coast will continue to be a good representation of the institution, at least in small part.  We’re glad to be prominently linked to on the school’s new site, and we realize that prospective students read our posts on a regular basis.  Of course, one of our other main goals is to serve as a sort of progressive counterweight to the views expressed by four of our distinguished professors over at The Right Coast (also linked to on the new site.)  As is easy to surmise, we thought that there was just too much misguided conservatism emanating from Warren Hall, and that the situation needed to be evened out just a bit.  We will improve our efforts to keep Smith, Rappaport, and Co. in check over the next year, and look forward to at least some give-and-take.  (While we have them prominently displayed on our site, they have yet to really acknowledge our presence in any way.  We’re hoping that changes in the year to come!)  Afterall, I sincerely think that people are interested in something more than “Does Obama hate America?”  That kind of stuff quickly gets old and predictable, and I hope that our presence as the “Bright” alternative to the “Right” will improve the quality of the commentary over there.  (I can only keep my fingers crossed!)

So, thanks to the thousands of you who have checked us out in the past year (82,000 hits and counting!)  We hope that you’ll continue to stop by in the year to come, if only to get your fix of intelligent, progressive, usually humorous commentary on issues that may or may not be important to you!  Furthermore, don’t forget to check out our new Twitter page for daily, less meaningful quips on the stories of the day.

Posted in USD Law | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »