The Bright Coast

Progressive Thoughts from San Diego Alums on Law, Politics, and Culture

Sorry Dick: Late Breakers Going to Obama

Posted by demkid on November 3, 2008

I wonder if Dick Morris is still writing Senator Obama off.  Who knows what goes on in that crazy head of his!  In any case, on the day before the election, it looks like the undecideds aren’t all going to McCain, like Mr. Morris expected.  In fact, the final polls are actually showing an increased Obama lead.  The final Gallup estimate, for instance, puts the race at 55%-44%.  Other polls put Senator Obama’s lead around the 7-8 point range.  If these numbers hold, the most frequent word used tomorrow night will be “landslide.”  It’s looking like it will be a truly historic November 4th.  I’ll be sure and post my predictions tonight!

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5 Responses to “Sorry Dick: Late Breakers Going to Obama”

  1. McCain'08 said

    McCain pulls an upset. Here’s why:

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/10/notes_from_a_battleground_stat.html

  2. demkid said

    He’s going to win because there are some wackjobs in PA? I hate to break it to you, but there’s no way that McCain can win PA with Obama doing even marginally well on a national level. There aren’t enough crazies in the state to counteract the big margin Obama will rack up in the cities.

  3. McCain'08 said

    I don’t see how Obama’s performance on a national level affects the Pennsylvania vote, especially considering that the Pennsylvania vote ends before two-thirds of the nation finishes voting.

    Aren’t enough crazies? More than a third of the state lives in rural areas (which, as defined by the census bureau, basically means you live in a trailer with your sister/wife and nine kids). Not only are those people going to vote Republican at roughly a 100% clip, they were largely ignored by polls. It is difficult to poll people who are not easily found/reached or who refuse to answer sophisticated city boys trying to gather poll data.

    I concede that Obama has a terrific chance, but in heavily rural states like PA, I wouldn’t bank on those poll numbers.

  4. demkid said

    If Obama wins this election nationally by more than say, 3 points, McCain isn’t winning PA. PA has been blue even in red elections (see 2004) and there hasn’t been some huge shift in the state electorate since then (unlike in a state say, like Colorado.) Polls these days are pretty darn good at getting representative samples of the electorate. If you think that all the polls are wrong, then by all means, take that position. I’d respectfully disagree, and expect that the numbers will back me up tonight.

  5. demkid said

    Oh yeah, and it’s 8:40pm EST and guess what? All networks have called PA. Guess all those trailer folks stayed in their trailers!!

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