President Obama to be Re-Elected; Little Change in Congress
Posted by demkid on November 5, 2012
Well, I indicated in my last post that I may be blogging more frequently, but that just didn’t come to pass. However, I did catch the twitter bug during this campaign season, so if you’re into tweeting, you can follow me on there (@brightcoast). This blog began 4 years ago, in the midst of the 2008 campaign season, as a tongue-in-cheek response to some of our wonderful USD Law professors who blog over at The Right Coast. (Now that blog just seems to be dominated by one professor who tends to re-post conservative articles without commenting much on them.) Like many conservatives, The Right Coast has envisioned some sort of landslide (or smaller) victory for Willard Romney when all the votes are counted on Election Day, which is tomorrow. In August, I stated that the conservative dream would never come to pass, and said, “I can almost guarantee that President Obama will be re-elected in November.” Now that we’re a day from voting, I’m going to put it all on the line and officially get rid of the “almost.” I guarantee that the President will serve another 4 years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Before I give you my predictions, I’ll note my accuracy in 2008. Then, I predicted an Obama popular vote margin of 6.7%. He won by 7.2%. I predicted an electoral vote for Obama of 349. He exceeded my expectations and garnered 365. In the Senate, I predicted 41 GOP Senate seats; they got 41. In the House, I predicted a Dem majority of 260-175; the margin was 257-178. So, I think I did pretty darn well. Let’s hope that I can repeat my accuracy this time around. Here’s how the map will look this year:
There you have it. 294 electoral votes for the President. Many of the s0-called “swing states” will be close, but I believe the President has a slight edge naturally and a significant built-in advantage in many of the important states. His easiest path to victory is the “firewall” of Nevada, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Winning these, plus not losing Pennsylvania (which trust me, won’t happen), gets him to 271. I also think he wins Iowa by at least a few points, and Virginia, which is the closest of my Obama states, but which I think he’ll hold onto by the slimmest of margins. The closest Romney state is Colorado, which I’ve been going back and forth on. Many think Obama will hold onto Colorado and wind up with 303 votes, which is significant because it’s the same number Presidents Truman and Kennedy won. That’s a distinct possibility, but I’m being a little more conservative, based on early voting figures. As for Ohio, the big battleground, I think the President will win there fairly easily. I’m actually a little more concerned about Wisconsin (a state Gore and Kerry won by less than a point), but the President has been there 3 of the last 5 days, and I think he’ll hold on. Take away Virginia and Wisconsin, and the President has 271. This is why Iowa is an important back-up, and why the President is finishing his campaign there, today. It could also be close in New Hampshire, but recent polling has shown a slight but steady Obama margin there. By the way, if it’s a slightly better night for the President, he could very well win Florida, but I think the odds are against it. Here are my other predictions:
Popular Vote: Obama 50.7%, Romney 48.3% (The exact margin when Bush beat Kerry in 2004.)
Senate: Democrats (+2 Independents) 53, Republicans 47 (no change)
House: Republicans 238, Democrats 197 (Dems gain 4 seats). I was tempted to make this dead even too, but there has to be SOME change out of 435 races, right??
Ohio: Obama 51.2%, Romney 47.7%
Closest State: Virginia
Largest Swing from 2oo8: Utah (secondary choices: Hawaii, Oregon, or Wisconsin)
Worst Political Pundit: Still Dick Morris
There you have it! It’s been an entertaining election season and hopefully it’ll be a fun night, tomorrow.